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Football Forecasters presents winning NFL football picks
for our 6th straight season. Welcome to the 2005 NFL season for the
complimentary College and NFL football picks and analysis presented
weekly on this page. Below are our 2005 NFL football pick division
previews, updated weekly. We are not football picks resellers, or 'consensus'
players. We're passionate football enthusiasts using basic unit-on-unit
analysis to make logical weekly College and NFL projections. We use
and recommend a sound money management philosophy. We release our football
picks on this home page as early as Wednesday, and no later than Saturday
of any given week.
NFC West Team Preview's
The NFC West division looks to be a dogfight between the Seahawks
and the Rams. However, we won't be surprised if Arizona pulls an
upset or two along the way. We don't see a dominant team within the
division. Our forecast model has San Francisco winning 4 games, but
with a brutal slate before the bye week, we think there's a real
possibility they'll come in under that number.
Seattle - 10 wins
St. Louis - 9 (+) wins
Arizona - 8 wins
San Francisco - 4 wins
Seattle
STRENGTHS
The Seattle Seahawks have a very strong offensive line that is equally
adept at opening holes for super stud RB Shaun Alexander, as well
as keeping the heat off QB Matt Hasselbeck on passing downs. Although
the secondary gave up some big plays last season, it was a young
group and after a year of experience looks to be an improved unit
this season.
Our win/loss projection has Seattle winning 10 games this season.
WEAKNESS
The biggest weakness we see with Seattle is the WR group as a whole
drops more passes than you'd like. QB Hasselbeck has good accuracy
on his short to medium throws, but No. 1 WR Darrel Jackson drops
more passes than any other No. 1 receiver in the NFL. In addition
newly acquired 2nd WR Jerome Pathon would never be confused with
belonging to the good hands club.
These guys get open underneath, but will stop a drive cold with their
costly drops. It doesn't appear that their hearing footsteps (because
I've reviewed game tapes and these drops happen in wide open situations).
This is an especially bad attribute for receivers to have in Holmgren's
short pass ball control west coast offense.
The defense could also be susceptible against teams with solid rushing
attacks. Free agent OLB Jamie Sharper looks to lock down the weak
side, but the middle and strong side are big question marks. This
is worrisome because Seattle faces a number of teams with better
than average running games.
SUMMARY
Seattle plays a middling tough schedule. They need to take care of
their division games at home, namely St. Louis, to win the division
title. Last year (at home) they dominated the Rams through 3 quarters,
then all hell broke lose when Martz opened up the playbook and they
really hurt Seattle with deep passes to their 3rd and 4th receiving
options. Seattle draws Philly on the road, and Indianapolis at home,
and don't match-up particularly well against either; so taking care
of business within their own division will be essential to success.
TOP
St. Louis
Our Win/Loss model has St. Louis winning 9 games, with a slight
upwards potential. Meaning it is more likely they'll win 10 games
than eight.
OFFENSE
RB Steven Jackson is a strong power rushing threat, who seemed to
pick up the nuances of blitz recognition, and looks to be a solid
starting back. St. Louis drafted 3 players on their offensive line,
in addition to bringing in an above average free agent, guard Rex
Tucker. That's a lot of new faces on the O-line. With bona-fide gunslinger
QB Marc Bulger throwing the ball, if this unit jells quickly the
Rams could have a very potent offense. HC Mike Martz is a master
schemer, he excels at putting his players in position to take advantage
of the oppositions weak points.
QB Marc Bulger is the key to this offense, as goes Bulger so go the
Rams.
DEFENSE
The defensive line looks solid, and the Rams took steps to improve
the linebacking unit. If the starters at LB can stay on the field
this could be an improved unit. If not, it could be a very long season
for the run defense. The secondary looks to be a big question mark,
and could be the undoing of the Rams playoff aspirations. Starting
corners, Butler and Fisher, are just OK in coverage - they both play
soft underneath to protect against giving up the deep pass. The safeties
are below average in coverage (but solid in run support).
SUMMARY
Fortunately for St. Louis the schedule only presents two teams who
are ideally suited to take advantage of the Rams vulnerabilities
- teams who can pass the ball underneath with good accuracy - at
Indianapolis and at Minnesota. We anticipate they'll also have trouble
hosting Philadelphia. They open with two winnable road division games.
If the Rams can take care of business at home, and pull off a road
upset along the way, they could surprise and make the playoffs, but
we don't see them going very deep in the post season (where they
would run into more teams that can effectively match-up to the Rams
multiple receiver sets). It looks like Vegas has a sharp line on
the Rams total.
TOP
Arizona
Arizona will sneak up on at least one team, and probably more this
season. Dennis Green is an excellent motivator and gets the most
out of his troops, who generally show up to play every week. Green
is the ideal coach for the low budget Cardinals.
STRENGTHS
Arizona's primary strength is they keep coming at you. There is no
one single unit on either side of the ball that stands out as an
area of strength for this team. But going back to Green's days with
the Vikings, he knows how to coach. He demands his players play disciplined
field position, and puts them in the right position to make plays.
FS Ifeanyi Ohalete is among the most underrated DB in the league.
Arizona has one of the strongest defensive line units in the NFL,
this units depth and discipline overcomes shortcomings on the rest
of the defense.
WEAKNESS
Arizona excels at not giving up the big play. They make opponents
work the length of the field. The problem is that the Cardinals don't
have the athletes to take advantage of miscues. The defense is good,
but it's not dominating. Patient ball control offenses can move the
ball downfield between the 20's. The offense is not consistent enough
to sustain long game winning drives.
SUMMARY
Arizona is an enigma. At this stage of Arizona's development, and
at this stage of his career, QB Kurt Warner appears to be a perfect
fit for the Cardinals. If Warner has confidence in his offensive
line the Cardinals will surprise a few teams this season. The defense
is strong and disciplined up the middle. Keep an eye on the October
30th match-up at Dallas. The Cardinals match-up well to the Cowboys,
and Denny Green could go in as a large dog. Our basic unit-on-unit
match-up analysis has the Cardinals winning 7 games. However, due
to the strong positive inclination, we have an upset or two penciled
in and are calling on the disciplined Cardinals to win at least 8
times this season. It wouldn't surprise us to see positive team chemistry
lift this team to 9 wins and into the playoffs.
TOP
San Francisco
The 49'ers are the anti-Cardinals. No will.
Our 2005 win/loss projections model has San Francisco winning 4 times.
STRENGTHS
Damn - we don't see any. RB Skip Hicks, and QB Tim Rattay appear
to be the lone heartbeats on this team.
WEAKNESS
Where do we start? At the top - ownership decision making is dreadful.
RB Kevan Barlow is a me first bust, who is very poor in blitz recognition.
If Barlow is in the line-up when rookie QB Alex Smith finally takes
the field, look for him to have a long season on his back. The strongest
team asset a rookie QB can have is a strong running game, a good
O-line, and a solid defense - Smith has none of the above.
SUMMARY
The schedule is brutal. Non-division road trips to Philadelphia,
Chicago, and Jacksonville - all teams with the defensive mind set
that will give the Niners a lot of trouble. Non-division home games
include Dallas, Indianapolis, and Tampa Bay.
NFC West Forecast:
Arizona is a real wild card in the NFC West. With there style of
play they could be in a lot of low scoring close contests - where
anything can happen. Seattle comes in as the favorite, but are
far from dominating. We don't see any totals play in the division
worth
hitting.
TOP
NFC South Team Preview's
The NFC South division shapes up to be one of the most competitive
in the league. The squads are closely equal talent wise, and any
team has real potential to win the division if they can win 4 games
within the division, that means whoever can pull off a road upset
within the division will probably win it. Schedule dynamics will
play a key role in determining the division champion. Mistakes
could come into play, whichever team keeps from making a game losing
error will probably come out on top. Carolina and Atlanta have
a decided advantage schedule wise, because they get their toughest
common opponents at home, while Tampa and New Orleans will be on
the road for their most difficult match-ups.
Carolina - 10 wins
Atlanta ( + ) - 9 wins
Tampa Bay - 9 wins
New Orleans - 7 wins
Carolina
STRENGTHS
Carolina has a good O-line, a great D-line, and HC John Fox installs
great schemes on game day, which are well suited for the opposition.
Keep an eye on rookie RB Eric Shelton, he's tailor made for Fox's
offense - and Stephen Davis has been hurt the past two seasons.
The defensive line is one of the leagues best, equally adept at
stopping the run and rushing the passer. Jake Delhomme is a bona-fide
gunslinger. Carolina likes to establish the run, then when teams
commit to stopping it they won't hesitate to go deep over the top.
Carolina had more deep pass attempts than any other team in the
league.
Our win/loss projection has Carolina winning 10 games this season.
WEAKNESS
On defense the secondary is vulnerable. Teams with good pass protecting
offensive lines, with outside speed at receiver can move the ball
on this defense; fortunately for Carolina there aren't many teams
that fit that description on the schedule. Carolina's offense primarily
depends on establishing a consistent rush attack, teams with good
rush defenses could give Carolina trouble.
SUMMARY
The NFC South draws the AFC EAST and the NFC Central. Fortunately
for Carolina they get the powerhouses from those divisions ALL
at home - New England, NY Jets, Green Bay, and Minnesota. The other
home game is Dallas - a team they match-up well too. Their non-division
road games are at: Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, and Arizona.
Each of those venues are winnable games for the Panthers.
TOP
Atlanta
Our Win/Loss model has Atlanta winning 9 games, with a slight
upwards potential. Meaning it is more likely they'll win 10 games
than eight.
OFFENSE
Atlanta does well when they can establish the run and get up
on opponents early. RB Warrick Dunn is a multi-dimensional force.
We're not sold on QB Michael Vick as a top-notch phenom. He's
athletic and talented, but disciplined defenses have shown how
to stop him. Vick's passes are not that accurate, and he doesn't
have the physically gifted receiver that can go up and get some
of his erratic tosses. Sometimes Vick doesn't make good decisions
where to go with the ball... he just doesn't strike us as "cool" under
pressure... ala Brady or Montana.
DEFENSE
The Atlanta defense has potential to be very good... not great
but good. The defensive line unit in particular looks strong,
they have both run stoppers and playmakers in the line-backing
unit. The big question mark is the secondary. Rookie CB DeAngelo
Hall played decent last year... however Atlanta needs Hall to
show solid improvement for the defense to become an area of strength.
SUMMARY
The key to Atlanta's success will be how much CB DeAngelo Hall
improves this year; his counterpart, CB Jason Webster, simply
is not that good a cover man, and teams with more than one good
receiver will move the ball on Atlanta. Consider that Hall will
be matched up against the oppositions best receiver, in order
he'll face: Terrell Owns, Darrell Jackson, Eric Moulds, Nate
Burleson, Joe Horn 2X, Laveranues Coles, Chris Chambers, Javon
Walker, Michael Clayton 2X, Roy Williams, and Steve Smith 2X.
Over the full course of the season that has to be the most formidable
array of wideouts any cornerback has to guard in the league.
Teams with solid pass attacks could give Atlanta a lot of trouble,
fortunately they get most of those opponents on their home turf.
TOP
New Orleans
Coach Haslett may be the first coach axed this season. He may
be guilty of being too loyal to his coaching staff. Consider
that this team has under performed for two straight seasons.
Last year the defense was rated last overall in the league, and
DC Rick Venturi, who has been with the team for 10 years, is
still coordinating the defense.
Our 2005 win/loss projections model has New Orleans winning 8
times.
STRENGTHS
New Orleans has playmakers at key positions on both offense,
and defense.
WEAKNESS
The problem with the Saints is their coaching sucks. QB Brooks
makes great athletic plays, then frustrates the hell out of you
with a turnover. The offensive line seems unfocused, and may
have trouble opening holes for Deuce, who may not be as motivated
a player after signing his huge extension.
SUMMARY
The schedule, like Tampa's, is brutal. The only two games that
differ are catching the NY Giants at home, and going to St. Louis
on the road. Last year the Saints won 5 games on the road at
some very tough venues; but they also lost several contests they
should have won. The Saints seem to play up and down to the competition.
They're a solid play as large road dogs, but will disappoint
your pocket book as favorites.
Forecast:
We wouldn't be surprised to see either Atlanta, or Tampa win
this division (instead of Carolina). Despite the talent base
New Orleans continues to under perform... and we don't see that
changing this year.
The best totals play in the division looks to be Tampa to win
over 7 games.
TOP
AFC North Preview
My season projection win/loss analysis takes a look at which team
is most likely to win their division, with specific emphasis on the
following criteria:
Last years unit by unit team statistical analysis.
Off season losses/acquisitions that improve areas of need.
Schedule - opposition strengths, and when you play key opponents.
With particular emphasis on division match-ups.
Owner, GM, head coach, coordinators, and position coaching changes.
With particular emphasis on system continuity.
Projected fundamental unit to unit match-up advantages that can be
exploited by a competent game plan.
Our totals projections are heavily weighted to division contests.
Of course we cannot take into account injuries at the time of these
forecasts. The division weighted win/loss projection for the AFC
South closely resembles Vegas' NFL futures totals projections:
Baltimore - 11 wins
Pittsburgh - 9 wins (B-rated totals - UNDER 9.5)
Cincinnati - 8 wins
Cleveland - 4 wins
TOP
Baltimore Ravens
STRENGTHS
A Football Forecaster believe it or not - QB Kyle Boller. Our analysis
of his play - he usually makes very good decisions with the ball.
He should make great strides this year. Consider that he'll have
pro bowl caliber TE Alge Crumpler back in the line-up, and savvy
WR Derrick Mason running downfield routes. Crumpler plays more like
a wideout than a traditional TE, giving Boller two viable downfield
targets. Last year Crumpler's absence due to injury hurt the offense.
The addition of free agent's CB Samari Rolle, WR Derrick Mason, and
OG Keydrick Vincent are huge quality additions to the line-up. Vincent
may have been the biggest signee, because he makes a quality addition
to the running game, while taking away a key cog from their arch
division rival. The Baltimore rush attack should be potent, and their
pass attack will be respectable.
Our win/loss projection has Baltimore winning 11 games this season,
with no appreciable +/- leanings. Meaning it's very likely they'll
win 11 games.
Outside of Indy and Denver their toughest schedule match-ups should
come from within their own division.
WEAKNESS
The defensive secondary can occasionally be burned for big plays.
SS Ed Reed takes too many chances and can be burned with good double
moves. This entire defense takes chances, sometimes it pays-off and
sometimes it really hurts. With the improving development of the
offense the defense needs to adjust their defensive philosophy to
stopping the opposition, as opposed to going for the takeaway and
game-breaking score. We suspect that because this offense has been
the heart and soul of this team for so long that this may be a too
difficult adjustment for the D to make... and it may cost them a
game or two.
SUMMARY
The schedule is relatively easy. They get the AFC South and outside
of Indy they match-up well to that division. From the NFC Central
they draw Green Bay at home and Chicago on the road - both winnable
games, they match-up well to Minnesota who they get play at home,
they go to Detroit where they enjoy another solid match-up advantage.
At Denver will be competitive, there are match-ups the Bronco's can
exploit. They draw the Jets at home and should control if they don't
overlook NY's deep speed. In their division they should sweep Cleveland,
and likely split with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Surprisingly to
us we have them down for 11 wins.
TOP
Pittsburgh Steelers
Our Win/Loss model has Pittsburgh winning 9-10 games.
STRENGTHS
This team has a knack for developing players. It starts in the trenches
on the offensive and defensive lines. DC Dick LeBeau is underrated
as a defensive schemer and motivator. We like the steadfast play
and run stopping ability of SS Troy Polamalu. The linebacking unit
is among the best in the league. WR Hines Ward is a crushing downfield
blocker on running plays, and has sure hands in the passing game.
WR Antwaan Randle El will match-up against the oppositions #2 cover
man and probably surprise quite a few DB's with his ability.
Pittsburgh matches up well to run oriented teams with average to
poor passing offenses.
WEAKNESS
This team lost 3 team leaders and solid starters in free agency,
and they weren't very active in filling the holes during the off-season.
Last year's rookie phemon QB Ben Roethlisberger is a quick study.
We followed Ben when he played for Miami-OH in College, and liked
his gamesmanship. He's a confident and sharp QB. That said last year
teams adjusted to his early success and began to figure him out.
They stopped blitzing him, doubled teamed Hines Ward, and disguised
their coverage schemes. We're concerned about Roethlisberger's lack
of experience, and the unrealistic expectations placed on him. He's
still a novice at reading defenses, and doesn't have the depth at
WR to exploit an offense.
The defense is vulnerable against teams with solid pass blocking
schemes and potent ball control pass attacks that can go both deep
and strike underneath.
SUMMARY
We like CANBET's UNDER 9.5 at +120 as a B-rated totals play on Pittsburgh.
The 2005 schedule presents several opponents with solid passing attacks
that could give Pittsburgh match-up problems - probable losses on
the road include - Cincinnati, Green Bay, Indianapolis, and Minnesota.
Pittsburgh probably loses to arch division rival at Baltimore playing
in their house. That's 5 losses.
At home they face non-division foes New England, Jacksonville, and
Detroit. We have them penciled in as favorites (WINS) in these contests,
but the fundamental match-up and scheduling dynamics of these spots
presents the real potential for an upset or two.
Potential strong
match-ups include Tennessee, Houston, Chicago and Cleveland (twice).
That's seven wins.
The 2 wildcards on the schedule are away games at Houston and San
Diego. Houston should be a dogfight, as neither team has match-ups
they can exploit, and the Steelers may get caught looking ahead to
New England. Ditto San Diego, we'll project the home teams to pull-out
wins in those contests, or at best a split.
TOP
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is an improving football team and will present a formidable
opponent in 2005. Unfortunately they draw a tough schedule, and may
struggle to reach .500
Our win/loss projection model has Cincinnati scraping to win 8 games.
OFFENSE
The Bengals boast a dynamic work horse rusher in Rudi Johnson, and
they have a talented group of wideouts led by Chad Johnson. The offensive
line is well above average. If Carson Palmer stays on track and continues
to improve on his scheme recognition skills, and decisions made under
pressure, this offense could become multi dimensional and very dangerous
this year.
DEFENSE
The defensive line is a potential weak link, the secondary is solid
to good, and the linebacking unit has the potential to be good. HC
Marvin Lewis is getting his players in place. The defensive front
4 stands out to us as a journeyman caliber unit. Not a difference
maker in big games. This defense will rely more on team schemes than
the individual athletes within the schemes. The defensive line should
be the heart and soul of an defense, and this team may be missing
theirs.
SUMMARY
Cincinnati is vulnerable against teams with solid secondary's and/or
capable rushing attacks right up the gut. Teams like Minnesota, Chicago,
Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Green Bay, Buffalo, and Kansas
City should all play the Bengals competitively. They do catch two
patsy's - Cleveland - X2.
TOP
Cleveland
There is a lack of talent in Cleveland, the cupboard is bare. With
the incoming Romeo Crennel era there is a radical shift in defensive
philosophy, the impact is the players he inherited don't match the
scheme Crennel wants to run. The schedule presents a 3 game opening
stretch of Cincinnati, @Green Bay, and @Indianapolis. The Browns
could be 0-3 at their bye.
Our 2005 win/loss projections model has Cleveland winning 4 times.
And only 4 times.
OFFENSE
This is a team in flux. A solid stable of running backs, with an
average rushing line, with no proven talent at wideout. The problem
is opponents will stack the line and force journeyman QB Trent Dilfer
to beat you through the air. But he's playing behind a so-so offensive
line, and has no WR threats that strike concern in the opposition.
Their most promising player is a rookie (Braylon Edwards).
DEFENSE
Despite less talent this defense may actually improve on last years
stats over the course of the season. With so many new faces, and
implementation of new schemes it's difficult to project how the Browns
will do. However, based on his history with the Pats, we can project
that Cleveland will not easily give up the big play, and give 100%
effort. We anticipate Cleveland will have difficulty with teams that
have strong passing attacks.
SUMMARY
Of course QB Trent Green is just a caretaker. The schedule is tough,
and Cleveland will be hard pressed to win a division contest. Vegas
has the number at 4 wins - and that's how we see it.
Forecast:
We see the improved Ravens as the rightful favorites to win the division
- with the key free agents they've brought in it's apparent they're
making a serious run at the title. Keep and eye on Boller in the
early going. Don't be surprised if Ben Roethlisberger experiences
sophmore growing pains.
TOP
AFC South Preview
My season projection win/loss analysis takes a look at which team
is most likely to win their division, with specific emphasis on the
following criteria:
Last years unit by unit team statistical analysis.
Off season losses/acquisitions that improve areas of need.
Schedule - opposition strengths, and when you play key opponents.
With particular emphasis on division match-ups.
Owner, GM, head coach, coordinators, and position coaching changes.
With particular emphasis on system continuity.
Projected fundamental unit to unit match-up advantages that can be
exploited by a competent game plan.
Our totals projections are heavily weighted to division contests.
Of course we cannot take into account injuries at the time of these
forecasts. The division weighted win/loss projection for the AFC
South closely resembles Vegas' NFL futures totals projections:
Indianapolis - 11 wins
Jacksonville - 9 wins
Houston - 7 wins
Tennessee - 7 wins
TOP
Indianapolis Colts
OFFENSE
The Indianapolis offense should be potent again this season, but
we don't think Peyton will be throwing for 49 TDs again. Last season
it was apparent Peyton was going after the record. Consider the games
where the Colts had a two score lead and he racked up multiple TD
passes versus overmatched opponents. While most teams in that situation
will run out the clock, Peyton was spraying the ball around with
pinpoint precision to his second, third, and fourth downfield options.
Our win/loss projection has Indianapolis winning 11 games this season.
Teams with defensive lines that can consistently put pressure on
the QB, and play a two deep defense with solid secondary's can give
the Colts trouble. However, the Colts only face five of those combinations
on the schedule - and we have them winning 2 of them. Until the rest
of the AFC South instills defenses similar to the brand and attitude
that Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and New England play the Colts will
be the Kings of the AFC.
DEFENSE
The defensive secondary could be an improved unit this year. They
should be because there is a lot of room for improvement. So long
as DE Dwight Freeney is coming off the edge with his speed rush this
will be a viable unit. It's too bad the Colts don't have a solid
group of safeties, because with the disruption that Freeney brings
this defense is stopping opponents but not taking the ball away as
much as you would expect.
SUMMARY
Pay attention to the season opener at Baltimore. The Ravens have
the prototypical defense that can give the Colts timing offense trouble.
HC Billick is the type of schemer that can exploit weakness in an
opponent. Look for the Ravens to run right at Freeney andperhaps
pull off the home upset. This could be the league wide blueprint
on how to stay competitive with the Colts. Peyton has a losing record
in big games - and this will be a big home opener for Billick's Ravens
(installed a 3 point home dogs).
TOP
Jacksonville
Our Win/Loss model has Jacksonville winning 9 games.
OFFENSE
We really like Leftwich. Unfortunately, outside of Jimmy Smith he
just doesn't have many downfield weapons in this offense. The Jaguars
are a team desperate for a big play receiver. Take away the big play
and Leftwich is not accurate enough on the short passes to make opponents
pay. The jaguars did not help themselves with recent 1st round selections
in the draft, as WR's Reggie Williams and Matt Jones are years away
from contributing to the offense. The Jags have an average O-line,
and if Fred Taylor gets hurt, or isn't recovered from last season,
this could be a tough year for the Jags offense.
DEFENSE
The defense has potential to be very good... not great but good.
This unit excels at taking away the inside run, and forcing teams
to beat you with a precision pass attack. They take away the opponents
deep game and force them to work the length of the field. There will
be at least one new starter at CB, and at this time it's looking
like a rookie. The Jags rely on disciplined zone coverage schemes
in the secondary. If the starting three stay healthy the zone scheme
can help protect the new guy. Until the Jags find an outside pass
rush this unit can remain good, but will fall short of dominating.
SUMMARY
Since the Jags did not make a strong push for Travis Henry we're
projecting that dynamic RB Fred Taylor will play. However, if Taylor
is out that could cost the Jags one of only two offensive playmakers
on the roster - so keep a close eye on the Taylor situation. Teams
with solid tackles on the O-line, and precision passing offenses
will give the Jags trouble (read Indianapolis). Keep an eye on the
Jaguars in September. After opening at home against Seattle they
face 3 potentially very good precision offenses (Indy, NY Jets, and
Denver). Look for Peyton to go after the rookie, if he's able to
exploit the Jags secondary they could slip in the division race.
TOP
Houston
The Texans targeted the wrong player in their trade with Oakland,
they should have traded their 2nd round pick for experienced LT Barry
Sims.
Our win/loss projection model has Houston winning 7 games.
OFFENSE
We're surprised the Texans did not address their huge questions at
left tackle. With exceptional talent like David Carr, Andre Johnson
and Domanick Davis, Houston appears just one player away from fielding
an explosive offense unit. Until the question mark on the left side
of the offensive line is fixed opponents will be able to exploit
this major area of weakness.
With the rich talent base on this offense it's simply irresponsible
for ownership not to address the problem on the left side of the
O-line. With the right stopper in front of him Carr has the potential
to be great.
DEFENSE
The Texans rank in the lower third of the league in pass defense.
They play the 3-4 and don't get much pressure on the QB from their
outside linebacker's - that situation doesn't look to improve this
year. They have high hopes for former Raider cornerback Phillip Buchanon,
trading their 2nd rounder for him.... Even if Buchanon plays up to
his strong physical potential the Texans don't have the ability to
consistently put pressure on opposing QB's to take advantage. Outside
of CB Dunta Robinson look for this secondary to again be an exploitable
unit.
SUMMARY
Canbet has Houston at -130 to win fewer than 8 games.
Considering the Texans formidable schedule this is a play worth taking
a hard look at.
Houston does not match up well to the precision Indianapolis pass
attack, they face 3 tough road defenses at Buffalo, Jacksonville,
and Baltimore, and they draw Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and St. Louis
at home - that's 8 games where they should rightfully be installed
as dogs. In addition they draw Cincinnati on the road. The Bengals
have a formidable rush attack with an improving passing offense that
the Texans will have trouble matching up against.
TOP
Tenneessee
The schedule presents a brutal opening 4 game stretch (Pittsburgh,
Baltimore, St. Louis, and Indianapolis).
Our 2005 win/loss projections model has Tennessee winning 7 times,
with a modest negative projection.
OFFENSE
The trade for RB Travis Henry should help. Henry's attributes fit
this offense and fills a need. The offensive line is above average,
QB Steve McNair is a savvy leader. Receiver Drew Bennett looks solid,
but after that there is no proven talent at the 2 and 3 spots. Incoming
OC Norm Chow has the pedigree and QB to be successful. Look for the
Titans to play a conservative ball control brand of football this
season, designed to keep their defense off the field. TE Ben Troupe
could be one of McNair's popular targets this season.
DEFENSE
This is where it starts to look ugly for the Titans. The defensive
line has potential to be solid up the middle, but with the passing
offenses in this division the secondary could be a sieve this season.
CB Woolfolk was a reach as a first round draft pick two years ago...
he has not performed well covering 3rd receivers in the nickel package,
so how is he going to do covering No. 1 receivers? Tennessee drafted "Pac-Man" in
the 1st round, but its looking like that pick might be a bust before
he even steps on the field. Tennessee doesn't have good edge rushers,
and that makes it especially difficult for this secondary.
SUMMARY
We like a healthy QB McNair as a leader and savvy player; and HC
Fisher always gets the most out of what he has. Despite a dearth
of talent, the Titans should be competitive at home. They draw several
home matches against poorly performing road teams traveling from
the east coast - Seattle, Oakland, and San Francisco. They also draw
Cleveland, Arizona and Miami on the road. Of these 6 teams Oakland
is the only one with a passing offense that can consistently exploit
Tennessee's secondary vulnerability.
Forecast:
We don't see anybody here threatening the Colts as AFC South winners,
the problem is that neither does Vegas. With Vegas having a tight
line on this division, the best play to make might be the UNDER with
the Houston Texans - with their questions at LT and the secondary
we don't see them reaching .500 this year.
TOP
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